Paper deep dive
How Much Coordination Gain Is Real? A Paired Noise-Floor Protocol for Multi-Agent LLM Benchmarks
Alibek T Kaliyev, Artem Maryanskyy
Intelligence
Status: succeeded | Model: Gemma-4-26B-A4B | Prompt: intel-v1 | Confidence: 94%
Last extracted: 7/9/2026, 5:54:58 AM
Summary
The paper introduces a paired noise-floor protocol to rigorously evaluate coordination gains in multi-agent LLM systems. Using ET-MCP as a measurement substrate, it compares 'pull' and 'intercept' coordination architectures against a no-coordination baseline on the τ2-bench retail benchmark with Claude Haiku 4.5. Results demonstrate that configuration-equivalent paired trials produce substantial run-to-run variance (a noise floor spanning [-3, +18] percentage points), with no statistically significant coordination gain detected after Bonferroni correction. The authors propose 'coordination-active pass^k' as a minimum reporting metric to isolate true mechanism effects from stochastic variance, concluding that many recent multi-agent coordination claims likely fall within this measured noise envelope.
Entities (8)
Relation Signals (7)
Pull → comparedagainst → Intercept
confidence 95% · The largest single-seed contrast (+18pp pull-vs-intercept...)
Claude Haiku 4.5 → evaluatedon → τ2-bench retail
confidence 95% · On Claude Haiku 4.5 against τ2-bench retail retail, the clean configuration-equivalent contrast...
paired noise-floor protocol → bounds → trial-0 disagreement
confidence 94% · how much paired trial-0 disagreement do two protocols produce... A prior question
Pull → comparedagainst → no_coord
confidence 93% · no_coord vs. intercept, both inert at trial 0
ET-MCP → implements → Pull
confidence 92% · Pull makes the agent the active reader... ET-MCP store
ET-MCP → implements → Intercept
confidence 92% · Intercept makes the framework the active reader... ET-MCP store
coordination-active pass^k → isolates → coordination effect
confidence 90% · pass^k restricted to trials where the coordination mechanism is logically active
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Abstract
Abstract:Multi-agent LLM coordination papers report small benchmark deltas as evidence that one architecture beats another. A prior question: how much paired trial-0 disagreement do two protocols produce on the same model and benchmark when their API inputs are configuration-equivalent (matched by code inspection plus a SHA-256 byte audit), short of full identity-replay? On Claude Haiku 4.5 against tau^2-bench retail, the clean configuration-equivalent contrast (no_coord vs. intercept, both inert at trial 0) gives signed paired gaps of +10pp and 0pp across two n=100 seeds; pooled across both, +5pp with Wilson CI [-2,+12], not significant. The largest single-seed contrast (+18pp pull-vs-intercept, p_corr=0.012) did not reproduce at the second seed (-3pp, p_corr=1.0); no trial-0 contrast is significant after Bonferroni at either seed or pooled. The envelope of observed paired gaps spans [-3,+18]pp across two seeds, with pooled upper Wilson CI ~15pp. Seven of ten recent multi-agent coordination architectures report headline effects below this local floor, and one more sits inside the envelope; whether they survive a same-model paired replication is, by construction, untested in their original settings. We define coordination-active pass^k, pass^k restricted to trials where the coordination mechanism is logically active, as the minimum reporting protocol, with sample-size targets and runtime hooks in the body. Measurements run on ET-MCP, a task-scoped negative-knowledge store conformant with MCP 2026-07-28, used as a substrate to isolate reader-side choices, not as a contribution. On Haiku 4.5 the candidate readers (pull, intercept) do not improve trial-1 recovery; we give a preliminary diagnosis of failure modes with refinements on existing production hook surfaces.
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- Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20695v1
- Canonical: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20695v1
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How Much Coordination Gain Is Real? A Paired Noise-Floor Protocol for Multi-Agent LLM Benchmarks Alibek T Kaliyev alibek.kaliyev@utexas.edu The University of Texas at AustinAustinTexasUSA and Artem Maryanskyy artem.maryanskyy@uber.com UberSan FranciscoCaliforniaUSA Abstract. Multi-agent LLM coordination papers report small benchmark deltas as evidence that one architecture beats another. A prior question: how much paired trial-0 disagreement do two protocols produce on the same model and benchmark when their API inputs are configuration-equivalent (matched by code inspection plus a SHA-256256 byte audit), short of full identity-replay? On Claude Haiku 4.54.5 against τ2τ^2-bench retail, the clean configuration-equivalent contrast (no_coord vs. intercept, both inert at trial 0) gives signed paired gaps of +10+10 p and 0 p across two n=100n=100 seeds; pooled across both, +5+5 p with Wilson CI [−2,+12][-2,+12], not significant. The largest single-seed contrast (+18+18 p pull-vs-intercept, pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012) did not reproduce at the second seed (−3-3 p, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0); no trial-0 contrast is significant after Bonferroni at either seed or pooled. The envelope of observed paired gaps spans [−3,+18][-3,+18] p across two seeds, with pooled upper Wilson CI ≲15 15 p. Seven of ten recent multi-agent coordination architectures report headline effects below this local floor, and one more sits inside the envelope; whether they survive a same-model paired replication is, by construction, untested in their original settings. We define coordination-active passk, passk restricted to trials where the coordination mechanism is logically active, as the minimum reporting protocol, with sample-size targets and runtime hooks in the body. Measurements run on ET-MCP, a task-scoped negative-knowledge store conformant with MCP 2026-07-28, used as a substrate to isolate reader-side choices, not as a contribution. On Haiku 4.54.5 the candidate readers (pull, intercept) do not improve trial-11 recovery; we give a preliminary diagnosis of failure modes with refinements on existing production hook surfaces (Amazon Web Services, 2025b, a; LangChain Team, 2026; Nigenda et al., 2022). †copyright: none 1. Introduction Two LLM agents work in parallel on the same multi-step itinerary. The first attempts to book a flight, discovers no inventory, abandons the path, and moves on. The second, started moments later by the same orchestrator, attempts the same booking through the same API and re-discovers the same dead end. The first agent’s failure lived only in its private scratchpad. This is a structural property of how multi-agent LLM systems (MAS) currently coordinate (Cemri et al., 2025; Fei et al., 2026). Recent architectures address it with coordination channels (structured handoffs, shared memory, server-side state) and report small benchmark gains as evidence one design beats another. Why we wrote this paper. We initially set out to evaluate two such designs (an agent-side pull channel and a framework-side intercept channel) against a no-coordination baseline on τ2τ^2-bench retail. The head-to-head shows no detectable effect at the available power: the coordination-active subsets contain n=8n=8–1717 informative pairs after ties, far short of what a medium-sized improvement would require. Unpacking that non-result forced a question we should have asked at the start: what is the run-to-run variance between protocols whose API inputs are equivalent at trial 0? A single number is enough to invert the read of much of the recent coordination literature. The rest of the paper answers that question and traces what it implies for our own and others’ architectural claims. ET-MCP as substrate. Measuring variance under matched payload required a representative coordination substrate, so we built one. ET-MCP is an Ephemeral Trace store of typed negative-knowledge events exposed via the Model Context Protocol (MCP) 2026-07-28 (Model Context Protocol Working Group, 2026): task-scoped, append-mostly, with a TF-IDF (term-frequency / inverse-document-frequency) ranker over failed_path-typed events. Two reader-side variants ride on the same store. Pull makes the agent the active reader: it calls trace.query when peer state might inform the next decision. Intercept makes the framework the active reader: it consults the store transparently on every tool call and prepends a [PEER-WARNING] block when (name, arguments) match a peer event. Intercept rides on the same hook surface already deployed for blocking, validation, retries, and caching in Strands (Amazon Web Services, 2025b), AgentCore Policy (Amazon Web Services, 2025a), LangChain (LangChain Team, 2026), and the Microsoft Agent Framework (Microsoft, 2026). The result that reframed the paper. Running this substrate against its no-coordination baseline yielded no detectable effect at the available power. At τ2τ^2-bench retail, Haiku 4.54.5, T=0T=0, n=100n=100 tasks, pull, intercept, and no_coord all reach trial-11 success 0.540.54 (paired sign tests fail to reject, p=1.0p=1.0 for all three contrasts; §6.3.2). Decomposed by trial, no_coord and intercept are configuration-equivalent at trial 0: their requests to the API are equivalent by code inspection (system prompt, tool list, sampling parameters, message-array construction; see §6.3.1 for what we did and did not verify). This is the only genuinely clean contrast in the trio; the paired sign-test disagreement is 21/11/6821/11/68 at seed-11 and 13/13/7413/13/74 at seed-22 (+10+10 p and 0 p signed gaps; pooled +5+5 p, Wilson CI [−2,+12][-2,+12], Bonferroni pcorr=0.711p_corr=0.711, not significant). The largest single-seed paired contrast was pull-vs-intercept at seed-11 (27/9/6427/9/64, +18+18 p, pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012), but it did not reproduce at seed-22 (18/21/6118/21/61, −3-3 p, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0); the pooled gap is +7.5+7.5 p with Wilson upper CI ∼15 15 p. We characterize the configuration-equivalent envelope on this benchmark, model, and harness as a paired-gap distribution whose observed range across two seeds is [−3,+18][-3,+18] p and whose pooled upper Wilson CI is ≲15 15 p—no single-seed Bonferroni significance survives a second seed. The floor is local, not universal; cross-model and cross-domain probes (Haiku airline n=30n=30, Sonnet retail n=30n=30) confirm it does not transfer. Coordination-active passk. To separate run-to-run variance from mechanism effect we define passactivek pass^k_ active: marginal passk restricted to tasks where the peer-coordination store was non-empty at trial start. Marginal passk answers “should I deploy the whole system?” Active passk answers “did coordination help when it had an opportunity to.” The two diverge whenever empty-store trials carry unrelated configuration perturbations, which is the situation we encounter. Three runtime alarms operationalize the metric on Amazon Bedrock AgentCore and SageMaker Model Monitor (Nigenda et al., 2022) (§6.5). Contributions. Four contributions track the threads above: • (C1) Measurement protocol. A same-model, paired, configuration-equivalent variance procedure for coordination-architecture claims on state-validated MAS benchmarks. The floor splits into an identity-replay component (byte-identical payloads, which we do not measure) and a configuration-equivalent component (same intended setup, code-inspection-verified, which we do) (§6.3.1). • (C2) Finding. On τ2τ^2-bench retail with Haiku 4.54.5 across two n=100n=100 seeds, the clean configuration-equivalent paired-gap pooled CI is [−2,+12][-2,+12] p (no_coord vs. intercept); no single-seed contrast is significant after Bonferroni once a second seed is measured. The observed envelope spans [−3,+18][-3,+18] p with pooled upper Wilson CI ≲15 15 p. Seven of ten recent multi-agent coordination architectures (Table 4) report headline gains below this envelope and one more sits inside it; each falls below or inside the envelope measured here. • (C3) Metric. passactivek pass^k_ active (coordination-active passk): passk conditioned on a non-empty coordination store. Sample-size guidance and three runtime instrumentation alarms ship the metric as a pre-deployment release gate (§6.5). • (C4) Failure-mode diagnosis (preliminary). The trial-level data surface three candidate failure modes of naive negative-knowledge coordination (writer mis-attribution; per-match injection noise; brittle keying), with matched architectural refinements on existing production hook surfaces (§7). Single-judge audit and small-n validation leave these as hypotheses for confirmatory work. ET-MCP itself and the harness mitigating a documented litellm (BerriAI litellm community, 2025b, a) bug class appear as supporting artifacts rather than claimed contributions. 2. Background and Motivation Coordination failure is measured, not anecdotal. The Multi-Agent System Taxonomy (MAST) (Cemri et al., 2025) attributes 36.94%36.94\% of failures in 1,600+1,600+ production agent traces to inter-agent coordination breakdowns, the single largest category, and CodeDelegator (Fei et al., 2026) documents context pollution scaling with handoff payload size. Coordination is therefore a measurable target, not an anecdotal one; the reliability of those measurements is the load-bearing question. ET-MCP as measurement substrate. We use ET-MCP, a task-scoped negative-event store exposed through MCP 2026-07-28 (Model Context Protocol Working Group, 2026) primitives, as the substrate under test. The architectural details are secondary to this paper’s claim; what matters is that ET-MCP is an MCP-conformant coordination layer that can be toggled on and off in paired runs, isolating a coordination-active arm against a matched baseline. The remainder of the paper is about what that paired comparison reveals about variance, not about ET-MCP itself. 3. Related Work Prior coordination systems. CA-MCP (Jayanti and Han, 2026) is the nearest prior system by name and substrate: server-to-server, positive plan state, single-trial; the authors explicitly disclaim cross-trial use. Terrarium (Nakamura et al., 2025) is a second MCP-based system with a pull-style interface, but targets attack-surface analysis. MPAC (Qian et al., 2026) proposes Lamport-clock conflict resolution for the multi-principal case. Reflexion and ExpeL (Shinn et al., 2023; Zhao et al., 2024) share the negative-knowledge intuition but inject via prompt context and are single-agent or cross-task-transfer. Long-lived cross-task memory (MemGPT (Packer et al., 2024), G-Memory (Zhang et al., 2025)) operates at task-spanning rather than within-task granularity. AgentVerse and related orchestration substrates surveyed in (Cemri et al., 2025) round out the prior-systems comparison revisited in Table 4. Framework-level hooks (Strands (Amazon Web Services, 2025b), AgentCore Policy (Amazon Web Services, 2025a), LangChain middleware (LangChain Team, 2026), Microsoft Agent Framework (Microsoft, 2026), AutoGen (Wu et al., 2023), MetaGPT (Hong et al., 2024)) carry blocking, validation, retries, and caching but no coordination semantics, and any of them could host the same measurement protocol. Measurement methodology: the actual gap. A concurrent thread measures the reliability of agent benchmarks. Yu et al. (Yu et al., 2026) frame the multi-agent case as lacking remote direct memory access. Variance-decomposition work spans a 12-metric framework (Rabanser et al., 2026), an ICC framework (Mustahsan et al., 2025), Anthropic-side infrastructure noise (Anthropic Engineering, 2026), aggregate pass@1 variance (Bjarnason et al., 2026), systematic agent reliability (Gupta, 2026), and input-noise robustness (Wang et al., 2026). None of these reports paired configuration-equivalent replication on a state-validated multi-agent coordination benchmark, and none conditions on a coordination-active sub-event. Bedi et al. (Bedi et al., 2025) (KDD ’25, same workshop series) document a component-vs-system paradox in clinical multi-agent settings but treat the system as a black box. Cuadron et al.’s τ2τ^2-bench-verified (Cuadron and Amazon AGI, 2025) fixes tasks while ours fixes transport; the two compose. AgentTrace’s post-hoc causal graphs (Wang, 2026) and STATE-Bench (Microsoft Research, 2026)’s memory-agnostic harness are complementary rather than competitive. The central claim of this paper, that coordination effect sizes should be reported relative to a same-model paired coordination-active variance gate, is what fills that gap. Ou et al. (Ou et al., 2025) compare orchestrator-mediated vs. shared-notebook coordination on TravelPlanner but neither pair at matched payload nor report a coordination-active variance floor, and we revisit them in Table 4 as one of the recent coordination papers whose reported effects straddle the paired noise envelope measured here on Haiku 4.5 / τ2τ^2-bench retail (pooled upper CI ≲15 15 p). 4. ET-MCP Architecture ET-MCP is the substrate that makes the measurement protocol of §6 possible; it is not the contribution of this paper. This section covers only what the measurement story needs: the minimal tool surface, the failure-only writer policy, and the pull-vs-intercept reader-side distinction that §6 compares. 4.1. Tool surface and lifecycle The substrate is structured around one trace namespace per task_id, served over the stateless MCP 2026-07-28 transport (Model Context Protocol Working Group, 2026). Agents see three operations: trace.write (append a typed event), trace.query (TF-IDF ranking over the typed payload, returning top-k peer events with one-line summaries), and trace.cas (compare-and-swap for the rare double-commit race). The task lifecycle (init, complete, TTL sweep) is owned by the orchestrator through a separate channel that participating agents cannot reach, so no agent can tear down a peer’s namespace. The TF-IDF ranker is a single replaceable component. 4.2. Writer policy Events carry an envelope (event_id, task_id, event_type, agent_id, timestamp, version, payload). Five typed event categories cover the negative-outcome cases mapped to the MAST failure taxonomy (Cemri et al., 2025): failed paths, constraint violations, abandoned approaches, irreversible intermediate decisions, and tool errors. The default failure_only client-side selection policy writes only on these negative outcomes. The τ2τ^2 retail evaluation specializes this to a single failed_trial_action type keyed on the trial’s terminal reward. 4.3. Two reader-side architectures: pull and intercept Pull (agent-as-reader) Intercept (framework-as-reader)ET-MCP storeAgentToolP1P2P3ET-MCP storeFrameworkAgentToolI4I1I5I2I3store read agent↔ injected [PEER-WARNING] Figure 1. Reader-side architecture contrast. The two designs share the event store, writer policy, and MCP transport; they differ only in who reads and when the payload is presented. Pull (left): P1 store → agent (curated summary at trial start); P2 agent → tool (call); P3 tool → agent (raw response). Intercept (right): I1 agent → framework (call); I2 framework → tool (forward); I3 tool → framework (raw); I4 framework → store (consult); I5 framework → agent (response, with [PEER-WARNING] prepended on argument match). Pull presents the curated payload once; intercept injects raw warnings per matching call. Side-by-side architecture diagram. Left panel shows the pull architecture: the ET-MCP store sends a curated summary to the agent at trial start, then the agent calls the tool and the tool returns a raw response. Right panel shows the intercept architecture: the agent calls the tool, the call passes through the framework which consults the ET-MCP store, the tool returns its raw response to the framework, and the framework forwards a modified response with a [PEER-WARNING] block prepended back to the agent. Figure 1 contrasts the two designs. Pull places the agent as the active reader: it calls trace.query when it estimates peer events might inform the next decision, paying decision overhead, round-trip latency, and an enlarged tool surface for that control. Intercept relocates the reader into the framework. The orchestrator intercepts every tool call, and if the call’s (name, arguments) appears in the task-scoped store as a peer failed_path or failed_trial_action event, it prepends a [PEER-WARNING] block to the response. Intercept removes the agent-side decision, the LLM round-trip, and any agent code changes; the tool surface and prompt are unchanged. The hook surface intercept rides on is already a production primitive in Strands (Amazon Web Services, 2025b), AgentCore Policy (Amazon Web Services, 2025a), LangChain middleware (LangChain Team, 2026), and Microsoft Agent Framework (Microsoft, 2026), so intercept is an additive extension to existing runtimes, not a new framework. Both architectures share the same event taxonomy, failure-only writer policy, task-scoped lifecycle, and MCP transport, and are configuration-equivalent at trial 0: pull’s augmenter is a no-op when the store is empty, and the intercept hook is pass-through on no argument match. The full audit of this equivalence is in §6.3.1. The next section instantiates both in the reference implementation that produces the measurements of §6. 5. Implementation To produce clean measurements, we built an Anthropic-native τ2τ^2-bench harness (~700700 lines) that replaces only the conversation-state construction layer; τ2τ^2’s domain database, tools, task definitions, and DB-hash reward are unchanged, and no model, sampling, or scoring code is touched, so the harness rewrite cannot itself contribute to the trial-0 disagreement of §6.3.1. This bypasses a documented bug class in the stock τ2τ^2-bench/litellm pipeline (BerriAI litellm community, 2025b, a) that corrupts ≥30%≥ 30\% of Haiku 4.5 trials, enabling zero-infrastructure-error sweeps. The harness and the et_mcp substrate of §4 ship together in the open-source repository. 6. Evaluation 6.1. Benchmarks and conditions τ2τ^2-bench retail (Barres et al., 2025) is the primary benchmark for the reader-side architecture head-to-head. It scores state-validated passk on a customer-service tool-using domain. We run n=100n=100 tasks (seed 42), with Haiku 4.5 as both assistant and user simulator, a 20-turn budget, and 2 trials per task. Cross-model and cross-domain probes (§6.4) use Sonnet 4.5 retail and τ2τ^2-bench airline at n=30n=30 each. 6.2. Metrics and statistical methodology Completion rate is the fraction of trials whose final output passes the benchmark scorer. Passk on τ2τ^2-bench follows the unbiased estimator of Chen et al.: the marginal success rate at k=1k=1, and the both-trials-succeed rate at k=2k=2. Two protocols are configuration-equivalent at a given trial when code inspection confirms identical request-side augmenter behavior at that trial (system prompt prefix, tool-response modifications, request headers, sampling parameters). This is necessary but not sufficient for byte-identical wire payloads (§6.3.1). Coordination-active passk (passactivek pass^k_active) restricts passk to tasks where the peer-coordination store is non-empty at each of trials 1…k1\!…\!k, the structurally-defined coordination-active sub-event. It is causally pre-specifiable from the protocol semantics: when the store is empty the coordination mechanism is inactive, so any cross-protocol comparison on store-empty trials measures noise rather than architecture. For k=2k=2 in our setting this is equivalently the trial-1 success rate on tasks where trial 0 failed. Each contrast uses its own paired subset (tasks where both compared protocols failed trial 0), so per-row rates are not jointly comparable across contrasts. Effect size throughout is Cliff’s δ with the Romano et al. (2006) magnitude thresholds. We apply paired sign tests (binary passk on τ2τ^2; the equivalent McNemar test agrees and is reported in Table 3). The τ2τ^2 head-to-head and coordination-active contrasts are reported outside the Bonferroni correction families as the pre-specified primary tests; all multiplicity corrections in this paper are Bonferroni with m=3m=3. All trials are logged to JSONL artifacts under eval/results/; analysis is reproducible via the analysis CLI in the repository. Pre-registration. The Haiku n=100n=100 retail head-to-head is the pre-specified primary test: protocols, K=3K=3 writer, seed 4242, and T=0T=0 were frozen before the run (K=3K=3 was pilot-tuned on a prior n=30n=30 sweep—§6.6). passactivek pass^k_active is causally pre-specifiable but was applied to already-frozen data. Sonnet, airline, M1, and P2 are exploratory; Sonnet n≥250n≥250 retail is pre-registered as confirmatory. 6.3. Results 6.3.1. Request-equivalence: what the trial-0 floor measures The trial-0 paired gap decomposes into four layered sources; naming them keeps the headline numbers honest. The first is a byte-identical first-request audit (E1); the second is within-protocol API stochasticity at ≤3≤ 3 p (E2); the third is between-protocol harness drift once the user-simulator emits its first sampled output (E3); the fourth is a hypothesized pull-specific structural perturbation (E4), which the second seed did not confirm. Strictly speaking, what we measure at trial 0 is multi-turn paired variance between two configuration-equivalent harness runs; we label it a coordination noise floor because it is the gate any coordination claim on this benchmark must clear, not because the variance itself is coordination-specific. At trial 0 the store is empty, so reader hooks are no-ops. The three arms share the agent system prompt (AGENT_SYSTEM_TEMPLATE; pull’s augmenter returns input unchanged when warnings_block() is empty), the protocol-independent tool list (no trace.query injection), user-simulator prompt and priming, sampling parameters (T=0, max_tokens=40964096, same claude-haiku-4-5), and a pass-through intercept hook. Two SHA-256256 audits confirm E1: an offline reconstruction of client.messages.create kwargs (40/4040/40 cells byte-identical: n=10n=10 tasks × 44 first-request payload components, each hashed across all 33 protocols) and a live wire-byte audit (30/3030/30 user-simulator opens byte-identical on 1010 headline tasks). The Messages API exposes no seed, so T=0T=0 requests are not bit-deterministic; a paired n=30n=30 within-protocol replicate (L3) bounds E2 at ≤3≤ 3 p. Once the user-simulator emits its first sampled output, it becomes the agent’s first message and downstream wire bytes diverge across runs (within or between protocol); that drift is E3. Pull’s seed-11 pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012 initially looked like a small real structural perturbation in pull’s augmenter (E4); the second seed did not reproduce it (§6.3.2), so E4 is now a candidate-not-confirmed source rather than an established one. E1–E3 together (plus E4 as a hypothesis) form the configuration-equivalent envelope, and the coordination-active metric is designed to condition away E2–E4. The head-to-head below measures any remaining effect against it. 6.3.2. Reader-side architecture head-to-head: pull vs. intercept on τ2τ^2-bench retail What this shows. On the coordination-active subset (trial 1 of tasks where trial 0 failed), pull and intercept tie and both directionally underperform the no-coordination baseline; with n=8n=8–1717 informative pairs after ties, the subset is underpowered for a medium-sized effect, so we read this as no detectable effect at this power rather than a clean null. The trial-0 paired gaps anchor an empirical noise floor that any architectural claim must clear. Pooled across two n=100n=100 seeds, the clean configuration-equivalent contrast (no_coord vs. intercept) gives +5+5 p (CI [−2,+12][-2,+12], not significant); the largest contrast (pull vs. intercept) pools to +7.5+7.5 p with upper Wilson CI ≈15≈15 p; and the largest single-seed gap (+18+18 p, seed-11, pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012) did not reproduce at seed-22. τ2τ^2-bench retail (Barres et al., 2025) reports state-validated passk on customer-service conversations (§6.1). All runs use the ~700700-line Anthropic-native harness (§5). A pilot n=30n=30 smoke on the stock τ2τ^2-bench/litellm pipeline observed ≥30%≥ 30\% of Haiku 4.5 trials terminating with malformed tool_use/tool_result sequences, silent at the harness layer, consistent with the documented bug class (BerriAI litellm community, 2025b, a). Our harness observed zero infra errors across 600600 trials. Protocols. The three protocols share an identical writer side. At the close of any trial with reward <1<\!1, the final k=3k=3 tool calls are written as failed_trial_action events in the task-scoped store. The τ2τ^2 harness uses this simplified single event type instead of the full five-category taxonomy of §4.2 because retail trials rarely surface explicit tool errors mid-trial; the failure signal is the trial’s terminal reward. (k=3k=3 is a causal-attribution heuristic, pilot-tuned on a prior n=30n=30 sweep; the n=100n=100 run confirms this configuration rather than pre-registering k=3k=3 as optimal.) The three protocols differ only in the reader interface. no_coord leaves the store unused. pull (agent-as-reader) prepends a curated peer-warnings summary to the agent’s system prompt at trial start. intercept (framework-as-reader) prepends a [PEER-WARNING] block to the tool response when the call’s (name, arguments) match a failed_trial_action event. Any passk difference between pull and intercept under matched payload is therefore attributable to the reader-side architecture, and we observe none at trial 1. Setup and headline. 100 tasks (seed 42) × 3 protocols × 2 trials gives 600 trials in total. Both the assistant and the simulated user are claude-haiku-4-5 at T=0T=0, with a 20-turn budget per trial. The task-scoped store is shared across the 2 trials within a protocol cell. Figure 2 summarizes the result. Table 1 reports cell-level metrics; Table 2 reports the coordination-active paired tests. Table 1. τ2τ^2-bench retail headline results (n=100n=100 tasks × 2 trials per protocol, 200 trials per cell, Claude Haiku 4.5; zero infra errors across 600 trials). All three protocols collapse to the same trial-1 success rate (0.5400.540): coordination does not move the metric once the store is populated. Protocol succ. rate passChen1^1_Chen passChen2^2_Chen Trial-1 succ. no_coord 0.540 0.540 0.380 0.540 pull 0.580 0.580 0.440 0.540 intercept 0.490 0.490 0.330 0.540 Marginal cell metrics for the three protocols. passChenk^k_Chen follows the Chen et al. unbiased estimator (marginal success rate at k=1k=1; both-trials-succeed rate at k=2k=2). The trial-1 succ. rate column reports the success rate on trial 1 only, where the trace store contains peer events from trial 0 and coordination is logically active. Table 2. Coordination-active passk test (P4, defined in §6.2; §7): paired sign tests on trial-1 outcomes restricted to tasks where both compared protocols had a trial-0 failure, so both stores contain peer events and the coordination mechanism is necessarily active. Subset n varies by contrast. All three pairwise comparisons fail to reject on this subset; with 10/8/1710/8/17 informative pairs after ties the test is underpowered for a medium-sized effect, so this is no detectable effect at the available power rather than a clean null. The recovery-rate ordering against the no_coord baseline shows both coordination architectures slightly underperforming no coordination at recovering from prior failure (W/L/T = wins/losses/ties). Comparison subset n t1 succ. rate W/L/T sign p pull vs. intercept 29 0.28 / 0.28 5 / 5 / 19 1.001.00 pull vs. no_coord 28 0.14 / 0.29 2 / 6 / 20 0.290.29 intercept vs. no_coord 35 0.20 / 0.34 6 / 11 / 18 0.330.33 Each contrast uses its own paired subset; rows are not cross-comparable. The high tie counts (1919, 2020, 1818) leave informative samples of 1010, 88, 1717 tasks, so these sign tests are near-powerless and the directional recovery deficits are hypothesis-generating only. Unconditional trial-1 paired sign tests over all n=100n=100 tasks return identical ties (pull-vs-intercept 13/13/7413/13/74; pull-vs-no_coord 19/19/6219/19/62; intercept-vs-no_coord 20/20/6020/20/60; all p=1.0p=1.0). This table conditions on trial-0 failure; the pass2 column in Table 1 counts both-trials-success unconditionally over all 100 tasks. The two are arithmetically consistent: pull’s pass=20.44^2=0.44 equals 0.71×62/1000.71× 62/100, where 0.710.71 is pull’s conditional trial-1 success rate given trial-0 success. Coordination-active head-to-head: no detectable effect at this power. The trial-1 outcome on the trial-0-failed subset was pre-specified as the architectural test (P4; §6.2): on those tasks the store contains peer events, so the coordination mechanism is active. Pull and intercept tie at trial-1 success rate 0.280.28 on the 29-task both-failed subset (paired sign test W/L/T=5/5/19W/L/T=5/5/19, p=1.0p=1.0). Each directionally underperforms no_coord on its own trial-0-failed subset (pull 0.1430.143 vs. 0.2860.286, n=28n=28; intercept 0.200.20 vs. 0.3430.343, n=35n=35), but neither reaches significance at this subset size. After ties, the informative pairs number 10/8/1710/8/17, well below the power needed to detect a medium-sized effect; “null” would overclaim, and we read this as no detectable effect at the available power rather than evidence that the mechanisms are inert. The unconditional trial-11 test over all 100 tasks returns identical ties. The takeaway is that the naive deployed-today coordination forms (last-K writers paired with either curated reading or per-match injection) do not transfer peer state into passk at this scale and model, and the directional evidence is at least consistent with mild interference rather than help; both readings would require a larger paired sample to separate. Trial-0 decomposition: an empirical noise-floor estimate. At trial 0 the store is empty under every protocol, so the coordination mechanism is inactive. Of the three pairwise contrasts, only no_coord-vs-intercept is genuinely configuration-equivalent: code inspection (see protocols.py) confirms that both arms reduce to pure no-ops on the empty store. Pull’s reader still re-enters its augmenter on every trial-0 turn (which returns input unchanged when warnings_block() is empty), so its contrast with the other two arms is not configuration-equivalent in the same sense, so its contrasts must be read separately from the clean one. Paired sign tests at seed-11 (n=100n=100, Bonferroni m=3m=3; the second seed follows below): no_coord-vs-intercept 21/11/6821/11/68 (pcorr=0.330p_corr=0.330); pull-vs-no_coord 18/10/7218/10/72 (pcorr=0.555p_corr=0.555); pull-vs-intercept 27/9/6427/9/64 (pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012). Wilson 95%95\% CIs on the signed gaps are [−2,+16][-2,+16] p, [−1,+19][-1,+19] p, and [+6,+26][+6,+26] p respectively: the first two cross zero, the third does not—at this seed. Reproducibility: a second seed. We re-ran the full n=100n=100 retail sweep at a second seed (seed42→ -2, same task IDs, same harness, fresh API draws). Trial-11 rates remain effectively flat (0.520/0.540/0.5100.520/0.540/0.510 for no_coord/pull/intercept); the head-to-head still shows no detectable effect. Trial-0 paired sign tests at seed-22: no_coord-vs-intercept 13/13/7413/13/74 (0 p signed gap, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0); pull-vs-no_coord 15/18/6715/18/67 (−3-3 p, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0); pull-vs-intercept 18/21/6118/21/61 (−3-3 p, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0). The seed-11 +18+18 p pull-vs-intercept significance does not reproduce; the sign even flips. We correspondingly retract E4 (pull-specific structural perturbation) as an established finding—a single seed’s pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012 on a contrast that pools to 45/30/12545/30/125 (+7.5+7.5 p, pcorr=0.316p_corr=0.316) over both seeds is exactly the artifact a paired noise-floor protocol should catch, and ours did. Pooled across both seeds (n=200n=200): no_coord-vs-intercept 34/24/14234/24/142 (+5+5 p, CI [−2,+12][-2,+12] p, pcorr=0.711p_corr=0.711); pull-vs-no_coord 33/28/13933/28/139 (+2.5+2.5 p, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0); pull-vs-intercept 45/30/12545/30/125 (+7.5+7.5 p, CI [−1,+15][-1,+15] p, pcorr=0.316p_corr=0.316). No paired contrast is significant after Bonferroni at any single seed or pooled. The clean-contrast pooled signed gap is ≈5≈ 5 p with Wilson upper bound ∼12 12 p; the largest pooled upper bound across any contrast is ∼15 15 p (pull-vs-intercept). The across-seed observed range of signed gaps is [−3,+18][-3,+18] p, with the upper end anchored on a single seed that did not replicate. We therefore characterize the configuration-equivalent floor as a paired-disagreement envelope whose pooled upper CI is ≲15 15 p; calling it “10–18 p” from one seed alone overclaimed the precision. The motivation for P4 (coordination-active passk, §6.2) stands: even a ∼15 15 p envelope swamps the small headline gains recent coordination architectures report. Mechanism diagnosis: three failure modes. (M1) Writer mis-attribution. The causally-relevant call is often upstream; last-K records downstream symptoms. A single-judge Haiku 4.5 LLM-judge audit on 3030 analyzable trial-0 failures returns 77%77\% upstream (direction-of-magnitude motivation, not a confirmed effect; see L4 in §6.6). (M2) Per-match injection noise. The intercept store accumulates n¯=2.77 n=2.77 events per trial (max 88), and each matching call fires a separate warning. (M3) Brittle keying. Literal-tuple payloads do not transfer: cancel_order(#W123) does not match cancel_order(#W456) even when both target shipped orders. §7 discusses refinements matched to M1–M3. Figure 2. Headline visual (seed-11 of two n=100n=100 seeds; §6.3.2 reports the second seed and pooled tests). The coordination-active head-to-head shows no detectable effect at the available power; the trial-0 paired gap is the noise-floor estimate. (a) Coordination-active head-to-head. Success rate by protocol at trial 0 (empty store, coordination inert) and trial 1 (store filled). no_coord and intercept are configuration-equivalent at trial 0 by code inspection; their +10+10 p signed paired gap at this seed (Bonferroni pcorr=0.330p_corr=0.330, CI [−2,+16][-2,+16] crosses zero) pools to +5+5 p (CI [−2,+12][-2,+12]) across both seeds and is the clean empirical noise floor. Pull’s +18+18 p paired gap against intercept at this seed (pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012) did not reproduce at seed-22 (−3-3 p, pcorr=1.0p_corr=1.0; pooled +7.5+7.5 p, upper CI ≈15≈15 p), so we read it as a single-seed draw from the envelope rather than an established pull-specific perturbation. At trial 1, where coordination is logically active, all three protocols collapse to 0.540.54. (b) Paired trial-1 outcomes over n=100n=100 tasks. Ties dominate; all three sign tests fail to reject the no-difference null (p=1.0p=1.0). Informative pairs after ties on the coordination-active subsets of Table 2 are 10/8/1710/8/17, so this is no detectable effect at the available power rather than a clean null. Two-panel figure. Panel (a) is a grouped bar chart of success rate (trial 0 vs trial 1) for no_coord, pull, intercept; trial 1 is flat at 0.54 for all three. Panel (b) is a horizontal stacked bar chart of wins/losses/ties for the three pairwise contrasts; ties dominate. 6.4. Cross-model and cross-domain probes Figure 3. Trial-0 paired-sign-test signed gaps across seed, model, domain, and contrast. The noise floor is a measurement output of the coordination-active passk protocol, not a universal constant. Haiku retail: the seed-11 gaps (+10/+8/+18+10/+8/+18 p) collapse to 0/−3/−30/-3/-3 p at seed-22; the red band marks the pooled clean-contrast CI [−2,+12][-2,+12] p and the dotted line the largest pooled upper Wilson CI ≈15≈15 p. The starred seed-11 +18+18 p bar is the non-replicating single-seed result retracted in §6.3.2. The floor is domain- and capability-dependent: Haiku airline at n=30n=30 shows 0 p gaps across all three contrasts, while Sonnet retail at n=30n=30 spans magnitudes 3.33.3–2020 p with the direction flipped—pull starts trial-0 behind no_coord on Sonnet rather than ahead—so the 2020 p magnitude there sits slightly above the upper edge of the Haiku-retail observations. Bar chart of signed trial-0 paired gaps in four groups. Haiku retail seed 1 at +10/+8/+18p; Haiku retail seed 2 at 0/-3/-3p; Haiku airline at 0p; Sonnet retail at -3.3/-16.7/-20p. Red band marks the pooled clean-contrast CI [-2,+12]p over the two Haiku retail groups, with a dotted line at the +15p largest pooled upper CI. Two n=30n=30 probes test whether the underpowered non-result and the floor are Haiku-retail-specific; Figure 3 summarizes the trial-0 gaps. The probes illustrate the metric rather than making coordination claims at this scale. Sonnet 4.5 retail n=30n=30. Trial-1 rates: no_coord 0.5000.500, pull 0.7330.733, intercept 0.7330.733; raw pull-vs-no_coord p=0.039p=0.039 does not survive Bonferroni m=3m=3. The trial-0 gap magnitudes span 3.33.3–2020 p (overlapping the Haiku-retail observations, with the largest magnitude slightly above their upper edge) but with the direction flipped: pull starts −16.7-16.7 p behind at trial 0, so its +23+23 p marginal gain partly recovers an unrelated trial-0 deficit. The coordination-active metric makes this direction-flip visible; marginal pass1 obscures it. Sonnet n≥250n≥250 is pre-registered as confirmatory. Haiku airline n=30n=30. Trial-1 rates: no_coord 0.5000.500, pull 0.5330.533, intercept 0.5670.567 (all paired p>0.69p>0.69); trial-0 gaps collapse to ≈0≈ 0 p, so the floor is domain-dependent. On the coordination-active subset (n=14n=14), the direction matches retail (no_coord 0.3570.357, intercept 0.2860.286, pull 0.2140.214): the naive last-K scheme does not help and plausibly impairs recovery. 6.5. From noise floor to deployment threshold Converted to a release-time decision rule, the Haiku-retail envelope (pooled upper Wilson CI ≈15≈15 p, §6.3.2) becomes a minimum detectable effect (MDE) for sample-size planning within that regime. Because the floor varies by domain (Haiku airline ≈0≈ 0 p) and capability tier (Sonnet retail magnitudes 3.33.3–2020 p), the MDE table is regime-specific, and transport to other model/domain pairs requires re-running the paired protocol. Applying a two-proportion z-test at α=0.05α=0.05, power 0.800.80, baseline p1=0.50p_1=0.50, Table 3 gives the required sample sizes. Table 3. Minimum sample size (tasks per arm) to detect a candidate passk improvement Δ on τ2τ^2-bench retail at α=0.05α=0.05, power 0.800.80, baseline p1=0.50p_1=0.50. “Indep.” is the two-proportion z-test for independent arms. “Paired” is the McNemar test calibrated on the seed-11 trial-0 discordance rate (pd=0.32p_d=0.32, no_coord vs. intercept; pooled across both seeds pd=0.29p_d=0.29, which barely moves the column). Read-out: τ2τ^2-bench retail’s public 114 tasks at one seed detect only Δ≥20 ≥20 p at the independent-arm rate (n=93n=93), or Δ≥15 ≥15 p paired (n=110n=110). Δ (p) Indep. n Paired n τ2τ^2-retail seeds∗ 5 1565 1003 impractical 10 388 249 4 seeds / 3 paired 15 170 110 2 seeds / 1 paired 18 117 76 2 seeds / 1 paired 20 93 61 1 seed / 1 paired 25 58 38 1 seed / 1 paired ∗ Number of full 114114-task seeds required to reach n; “paired” counts the paired condition. Motivation only: literature gap-size context. Table 4 sets ten recent multi-agent coordination contributions next to the Haiku-retail pooled envelope: seven headline gains fall below the clean-contrast pooled upper CI (1212 p) and one more sits inside the 1212–1515 p band up to the largest pooled upper CI. The ten are recent (2023–2026) multi-agent coordination architecture papers we found citing MAST (Cemri et al., 2025) or CodeDelegator (Fei et al., 2026) and reporting a single-number headline architectural delta on a named benchmark; this is illustrative rather than systematic. The point is to motivate reporting same-model paired floors alongside future coordination claims, not to adjudicate the underlying systems in their original (different model, task, metric, n) settings, which would require per-row paired replication. We acknowledge the tension head-on: this paper argues against single-number cross-setting comparisons, and Table 4 is precisely that juxtaposition; we include it as a motivating prompt because the gap-size visibility outweighs the methodological cost, not because the comparison itself adjudicates anything. Table 4. Motivation examples for why same-model paired floors matter; not a verdict on the underlying systems. Each row’s effect is shown alongside our Haiku-retail pooled envelope purely to motivate the protocol; the comparison is heterogeneous (different model, task, metric, n) and any individual row may be entirely real in its original setting. “vs. floor” marks whether the published gap is below the clean-contrast pooled upper CI of 1212 p (↓ ), inside the 1212–1515 p band up to the largest pooled upper CI (==), or above 1515 p (↑ ); the floor itself varies by model and domain (§6.4). Paper Bench / Task Effect vs. floor CA-MCP (Jayanti and Han, 2026) TravelPlanner BERTScore +1.2+1.2 pts ↓ Terrarium (Nakamura et al., 2025) Meeting Scheduling 1.01.0–2.72.7 p ↓ AgentVerse (Chen et al., 2024) HumanEval (Solo vs. Group) +1.8+1.8 p ↓ AutoGen (Wu et al., 2023) MathChat over PoT/PS ∼ +6+6 p ↓ MetaGPT (Hong et al., 2024) SoftwareDev quality <10<10 p ↓ Silo-Bench (Zhang et al., 2026) GPT-OSS P2P vs. BP +6+6 p ↓ Reflexion (Shinn et al., 2023) HumanEval +11+11 p ↓ Ou et al. (Ou et al., 2025) TravelPlanner orch.+notebook +13.5+13.5 p == Reflexion (Shinn et al., 2023) ALFWorld +22+22 p ↑ Ou et al. (Ou et al., 2025) TravelPlanner combined +17.5+17.5 p ↑ Coordination-active passk is the minimum pre-deployment measurement gate that any coordination claim on τ2τ^2-bench (and the broader τ-bench family of state-validated benchmarks) should pass; Table 3 ships the release-gate. Monitoring schema. Three runtime rules for AgentCore / SageMaker Model Monitor (Nigenda et al., 2022) deployments: (R1) CUSUM on coordination-active passk over a golden-task set, alarm at ±1.5σfloor± 1.5 _ floor; (R2) rolling-N 9595th-percentile injection-event count, alarm at ≥50%≥ 50\% above release baseline (right-skew defeats Gaussian 2σ2σ); (R3) coordination-key collision rate, alarm at >0.5%>0.5\%. Relation to release-gate and reliability work. The Anthropic infrastructure-noise study (Anthropic Engineering, 2026) reports 66 p configuration gaps on SWE-Bench from CPU/RAM in a single-agent setting; Mustahsan et al. (Mustahsan et al., 2025) propose an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) framework on FRAMES/GAIA; CI/CD quality gates (Maiorano, 2026) and behavioral drift monitoring (Rath, 2026) cover adjacent ground. Ours is the first MDE-grounded release-gate keyed on a coordination-architecture noise floor with store-conditional restriction on a state-validated coordination benchmark. 6.6. Limitations Six limitations bound the claims above. L1 (identity-replay): request-equivalence is verified by code inspection plus a 40/4040/40 SHA-256256 payload-hash audit on a separate n=10n=10 retail sample (1010 tasks × 44 first-request payload components, each byte-identical across all three protocols; §6.3.1); the headline n=100n=100 sweep was not itself byte-audited, but the audit shows the request-assembly invariant holds. The Messages API exposes no seed, so the pooled envelope (upper CI ≈15≈15 p) upper-bounds the residual server-side stochasticity floor. L2 (writer pilot-tuning): the writer (K=3K=3, single failed_trial_action type) was tuned on a prior n=30n=30 sweep; passactivek pass^k_active is pre-specifiable in principle but was applied to already-collected data here. L3 (within-protocol replicate + second seed). A paired n=30n=30 within-protocol audit gives trial-0 signed gaps of 0–3.33.3 p across all three protocols (p=1.0p=1.0), bounding pure API stochasticity at ≤3≤ 3 p. A second n=100n=100 headline seed (§6.3.2) confirms that no single-seed paired contrast is significant once we measure twice: pooled across both seeds, all three trial-0 contrasts land at signed gaps of 2.52.5–7.57.5 p with Wilson upper CIs ≤15≤ 15 p and Bonferroni pcorr>0.3p_corr>0.3. Pull’s seed-11 +18+18 p gap against intercept was not reproduced (−3-3 p at seed-22), so we retract E4 (pull-specific perturbation) as an established source. L4 (single-judge M1): the 77%77\% upstream rate uses a same-model-class judge with no Cohen’s κ or independent replication; M1 is a hypothesis for confirmatory work. L5 (cross-model/-domain n=30n=30): Sonnet retail and Haiku airline show regime-specificity rather than coordination claims; Sonnet n≥250n≥250 is pre-registered. The n=100n=100 headline’s coordination-active subsets are tight (pull vs. intercept paired, n=29n=29, 5/5/195/5/19), so the architectural head-to-head is an underpowered non-result rather than a clean null, and is weaker evidence than the measurement contribution. L6 (trial-0 inertness): the protocol assumes peer-coordination flows reader-side only; writer-side anticipation effects are out of scope. Scope. Haiku 4.54.5 retail carries the n=100n=100 headline; outcome conversion is not detectable at the available power at this model and scale. 7. Forward Work The coordination-active null (§6.3.2) isolated three failure modes of naive coordination, each with a matched refinement on existing production hook surfaces (Strands (Amazon Web Services, 2025b), AgentCore Policy (Amazon Web Services, 2025a), LangChain middleware (LangChain Team, 2026)). P1: causally-attributed writers address M1 writer mis-attribution: an LLM-judge consumes the trajectory and reward and re-weights which trial calls get written, replacing the recency-only last-K heuristic. P2: selective intercept addresses M2 per-match injection noise: a score gate fires only when a peer event is relevant, novel, and decision-proximal (preliminary signal below). P3: predicate constraint extraction addresses M3 brittle literal keying: an extractor turns the trajectory into a typed predicate (e.g. tool=cancel_order with order.status=shipped) so intercept fires on the predicate, not the literal argument tuple. P4: coordination-active passk (§6.2) is the release-time gate any refinement should clear. P1 and P3 each require an LLM-judge component not validated here. A shared trace store also opens security surfaces (poisoned writes, cross-principal exfiltration); the prototype assumes a trusted single-tenant deployment. P2 (selective intercept), preliminary signal. A score-gated intercept that fires only when a peer event is relevant, novel, and decision-proximal beat vanilla intercept on the coordination-active subset at Haiku 4.5 retail n=30n=30 (+15.8+15.8 p, paired sign 2/7/212/7/21, p=0.18p=0.18; hyperparameters not pre-registered). Directionally consistent and underpowered; Sonnet at n≥250n≥250 is the natural confirmatory test. 8. Conclusion The observed trial-0 paired-gap envelope on τ2τ^2-bench retail spans [−3,+18][-3,+18] p across all three contrasts and two n=100n=100 Haiku 4.5 seeds; the clean configuration-equivalent contrast (no_coord vs. intercept) gives +10+10 and 0 p, pooling to +5+5 p (CI [−2,+12][-2,+12]), with a pooled upper Wilson CI of ∼15 15 p on the largest between-protocol contrast; no single-seed Bonferroni significance survives a second seed. ET-MCP, the task-scoped trace-store substrate, made the matched-payload comparison possible; the measurement discipline, not the substrate, is what we expect to travel. Notably, our own seed-11 pull-vs-intercept pcorr=0.012p_corr=0.012 did not reproduce at seed-22—a worked example of the protocol catching the single-seed artifact it is designed to catch. Seven of ten recent coordination architectures report headline gains below that envelope and one more sits inside it. 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